SA10 vs SDB or JSOW
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@pgk007 said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
As life has shown, the SA-10 is not capable of shooting HARMs. At least 16 SA-10 FCRs destroyed by HARMs during the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region are confirmed. In order to protect the SA-10 units from the ARM, the Russian Army transferred the SA-15 systems.
It’s hard to say how effective the SA-11 is, but the SA-19 and SA-22 have trouble hitting these types of targets.Confirmed information indicates that
the only system capable of shooting down small fast targets as HARM and GMLRS are SA-15s.
JSOW, JASSM, SDB, STORM SHADOW, APACHE and SCALP have less RCS which means even SA-15 is unable to shoot them downSaying sa15 could hit a harm and not a storm shadow cannot be true
Storm shadow has a much higher RCS and is flying much slower
Even jdams have much higher RCS and are flying much slower
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@Mav-jp @pgk007
Yeah, but those SA15 systems are newer M2 or even M3 , … so older M1 vs Harm = pk 0.8+ … but newer M2/M3 vs Harm = pk 0.95.But Stormshadow ,… it is a bit of guesswork of course, just no any data avail…
it could be even pk = 0.7 for (BMS) M1 system … about 1/3 - 1/2 range.Don’t underestimate TOR … it was designed for bigger sam protection - with that in mind… so, even low rcs cruisers are not safe.
I’ve seen videos from MAKS - more then 10years where it was already “advertising” vs Harm engagements… probably M2 version.
Otoh, BUK (sa11,sa17) complete unknown (vs Harm, but vs cruisers = very probable), … I know that new SA17 is even ABM capable … so, not child’s play in any case.
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@Mav-jp
Yes, I know Storm Shadow is bigger and slower than HARM, but it was designed 15 years after HARM with other materials (including RAM) and optimized shapes. In addition, it has a completely different flight profile (altitude 30-40 meters in low profile at Mach 0.9), which makes it very difficult to detect and hit with SAH guided missiles. It is much easier to detect and kill a HARM with a high flight profile because the time it can be detected and tracked is much longer.I didn’t mention JDAM bombs because they are relatively easy to shoot down with modern short range systems and it was not related to this topic.
AFAIK Ukrainian AF had problems with SA 10 till they received HARMS in B version
@white_fang
The Ukrainian war showed that all Russian anti-aircraft systems were overrated, some more, some less. The anti-step bubbles, as the Russians called them, proved vulnerable to airstrikes, but keep in mind that the Ukrainian Air Force did not have advanced anti-radar weapons until the HARMs were delivered.
The actions of the Russians show that long- and medium-range systems must have additional shields, which means that they are unable to defend themselves against targets that are difficult to detect. There are rumors that Ukraine may soon receive STORM SHADOW missiles. If that happens, life will verify how good Russian defense against such targets is.
The conflict in Syria and Ukraine has shown that Russian equipment is rarely as good as the Russians presented in advertising materials.More updates soon
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@pgk007 said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
I didn’t mention JDAM bombs because they are relatively easy to shoot down with modern short range systems and it was not related to this topic.
Actually there’s nothing that indicates that JDAM’s are relatively easy to be shot down.
Flying slow does and can present an extra challenge for a radar to lock on as it can be seen over Ukraine where even the most advanced Russian Air Defence Systems have had a harm time to shot down even something like a loitering Bayraktar TB2 UAV which has a quite larger RCS than a JDAM.
Moreover the RCS of a JDAM is very small since we are talking about a “cone-shaped” with a relatively small diameter coming directly but not so fast (presents a challenge to pulse-doppler radars).On top of this, many (or today most) Air Defence Systems also use other means of detection, namelly IR sensors and here (in the IR spectrum) the JDAM is far more stealthier than any missile (due to having much less heat).
SDBs and JSOWs are obviously even harder to be detected and shot down by enemy Air Defence Systems than JDAMs (due to lower RCS).
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@pgk007 said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
The Ukrainian war showed that all Russian anti-aircraft systems were overrated, some more, some less. The anti-step bubbles, as the Russians called them, proved vulnerable to airstrikes, but keep in mind that the Ukrainian Air Force did not have advanced anti-radar weapons until the HARMs were delivered.
What VSU airstrikes, over Russia (territory) ?? Aside from few drones over DNR none VSU plane has ever pass the border. - they are still lying on the (LNR/DNR) fields - forever.
Yeah and those Harm came as big help, (none of the carrying Migs ever returned) , VSU even managed to destroy their own radars - hehe, same/similar tech. (and few flats/buildings)
So that 16x radar “bodycount” from post above you can trash and restart.It isn’t exactly true if it was on TV.
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@ricnunes said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
Flying slow does and can present an extra challenge for a radar to lock on as it can be seen over Ukraine where even the most advanced Russian Air Defence Systems have had a harm time to shot down even something like a loitering Bayraktar TB2 UAV which has a quite larger RCS than a JDAM.
The Bayraktar TB2 offensive success was actually a very small window in time as Russia had to consolidate Air Defense Ops and then the Ukrainians slow played the release of footage:
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@ricnunes
Actually TB2 is not good example of hard target. Over 20 was lost in Ukraine and this equipment is really overrated . It can operated only in area without ECM coverage and without basic AD.@white_fang
Did I mentioned about VSU airstrikes over russian terytory or sth like this?
Khesron oblast was and is now ukrainian teritory AFAIK.None of carying HARMs Mig ever returned? So how VSU put on YT videos from launch at least 4 HARMS from them?
I know about russians statistics where they shoot down more planes tha Ukraine posses before war…
M8 I am far from believing everything that is written on the internet and everything that the propaganda of both sides preaches but there are volounteers from my country wichone helping Ukrainians and the saw a lil bit more than we can.
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@pgk007 said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
As life has shown, the SA-10 is not capable of shooting HARMs.
WUT?
At least 16 SA-10 FCRs destroyed by HARMs during the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region are confirmed.
WUT?
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@molnibalage
One of our best OSINT analysts Jarosław Wolski said it this after the UA Kherson offensive -
@pgk007 said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
Actually TB2 is not good example of hard target. Over 20 was lost in Ukraine and this equipment is really overrated . It can operated only in area without ECM coverage and without basic AD.
Well, losing 20 (or a bit more) slow but not so small TB2 UAVs during a full year of conventional war against an enemy (Russia) well equipped with Air Defence Systems is IMO not that bad. Not bad at at all.
A clear situation that shown that even something like the TB2 is not that easy to be shot down was during the battle for the “Snake island” where Ukrainian TB2s were able to destroy SA-15s and Pantsir Air Defence Systems thus paving the way to subsequent manned fighter aircraft attack (like for example Su-27s) and later on, allowing the Ukrainians to retake the island.
Of course and obviously a JDAM is much, much harder to be shot down compared to a TB2 UAV. -
@ricnunes
About “Snake Island” thats true but im not sure if Pantsir and SA-15 were active ATM
What i know for sure TB2 are not able to operate in area where russians using jammers. And luckly for UAF there were no jammers on Island. -
@pgk007 I think I Ukraine they were not active, but in Libya ~10 pantsirs destroyed (most of them active) for ~20 tb2 losses and in Syria also lots of air defense systems struck with 1 or 0 tb2 losses. IMO IADS network and jamming changes things a lot, for example in Syria there was heavy jamming during whole operation by Turkish systems so there were nearly no losses. Plus Syrian air defense was integrated. In Libya there was no jamming from Turkish side and Pantsirs+Krasukha jammers inflicted relatively high losses. But in Ukraine after a few weeks, heavy Russian jamming and IADS forced all tb2s to be grounded or converted to long range ISR role. Also despite HARMs i didn’t see much effect on Russian air defenses. Especially no for s300, they are not visually confirmed.
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Tb2 is also relatively low observable for air defense systems because of radar cross section from downside -
Finally as big Bird’s tracking angle is 90 degree, I’d just change attack azimuth for SDBs and sa-10 can do nothing to 32x SDBs swarm
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@pgk007 said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
@molnibalage
One of our best OSINT analysts Jarosław Wolski said it this after the UA Kherson offensivePlease link to us.
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@molnibalage
https://www.youtube.com/@wolskiowojnie
Unfortunatelly its in polish language. It was around august - september. -
@pgk007 said in SA10 vs SDB or JSOW:
@molnibalage
https://www.youtube.com/@wolskiowojnie
Unfortunatelly its in polish language. It was around august - september.Pls find if you can maybe the slides - if there is any - can be useful.
I have VERY, VERY serious doubts about his claim…First of all, RUS does not use the SA-10…
SA-10A = S-300PT
SA-10B = S-300PSEven these had to prove their anti ARM capability. Also it would be funny to be ineffective against these because it also would mean on ships the S-300 Fort is ineffective against ASMs like AGM-84…
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@molnibalage
I’ll try to check it though
the problem is that i don’t remember exactly when he said it because i try to watch every report of him (and not just him, btw).I do not know exactly which versions (specifically the radars) were destroyed, but as you know, there are 13 versions of the S-300P series.
As for the Fort system, it was not very effective against the Harpoon-class ASM, since the pride of the Black Sea Fleet, the 1st rank MOSKVA cruiser, changed its classification to a submarine.
I know it’s a bit sarcastic but how many times can you hear about the failures of Russian equipment because the crew was not prepared, or the radars were not turned on, or something didn’t work because someone stole something or it was an export version (I hope you know what I mean )I am far from completely underestimating Russian equipment, but I have the impression that the advertising materials of their design offices do not fully reflect reality.
Cheers -
P.S
I found a nice article on defence24.pl
Analyzing the attack on the airport in Bielogrod:https://defence24.com/armed-forces/belgorod-russian-air-defences-compromised
Interesting conclusions
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well one thing seems to matter
is SA10 really using Active Missile as we have in BMS ?
because ready this article, (which could be as well western propaganda) it seems all RUS sams are SAHR and not AHR ?
and is the PAtriot using AHR as well ?